Despite the declining rates on deposits of individuals and a negative real rate of return on deposits, the Russians continue to trust their savings to banks. Among the reasons for the increase in popularity of banking experts called the return of depositors' confidence after years of crisis and raise rates by some banks.
Contributions grow
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the volume of deposits and individual deposits in credit institutions accounts opened in Russian rubles and foreign currency, as of August 1, 2004 was $ 1 trillion. 782.6 billion, an increase compared with the beginning of 2004 to 15.8%, as compared with the corresponding date in 2003 - at 35.8%. At the same time Sberbank has traditionally holds a leading position in this segment: its share in total deposits was 61.9%.
According to experts, after some outflows of deposits from private individuals in May-July 2004, the fall tended to increase resumed. Director of Retail Business Department, Guta-Bank Lidia Herzen described NEWSPAPERS: «At the end of the summer term deposits at market interest rates rose by about 0,5-2%. This could be a determining factor in selecting the method of placement of funds and lead to an increase in the volume of deposits in general. Currently, the growth of deposits affects both the increase in interest rates, a number of banks, as well as seasonal factors. Typically, during the holidays there is the outflow of funds, and in autumn-winter period, customers are trying to place them profitable ».
In turn, the Head of the Retail Products International Industrial Bank Alex Kravets thinks: «The positive dynamics of the volume of deposits of individuals showed that the July crisis in the banking system of Russia has been local in nature and not led to a systemic change. Money seized investors during the period, were returned back after a short time. In addition, the fall is traditionally celebrated a significant increase in deposits of natural persons, which also affected the marked increase in private deposits ».
Russians to continue to enjoy U.S.
volume of deposits and individual deposits in credit institutions in the accounts opened in foreign currency (rubles), according to the Federal State Statistics Service, increased compared with the beginning of 2004 to 5.1% and was at 1 August 2004, 488.5 billion rubles (27% of the total). This data bank show that, despite calls to place funds in ruble deposits aired earlier this year, dollar deposits often prevail. Deputy Chairman of SDM-Bank Dmitry Osipov told NEWSPAPERS: «Since the beginning of the year, nothing has changed: the volume of deposits, in general, is increasing, while the ratio does not change. To date, among the available funds dominate investments in the U.S. - about 60% of all available funds, about 35% of the deposits held in rubles, and the remaining deposits - in the euro ».
In International Moscow Bank (IMB) noted some outflow of funds from the ruble deposits: from the beginning of the year the share of deposits in the Russian currency fell by 15%, while in the U.S. increased by 12%, while the euro - on 3%. As of October 1, 2004 in PSA ratio has been as follows: deposits in rubles amounted to 32% in U.S. - 54%, while the euro - 14%.
Director of the Center for development of retail products and marketing Impexbank Valery Kardashov also notes a change in the ratio of deposits during the crisis to the U.S.: «In my opinion, this was due to a desire to insure depositors thus their savings from the instability. There is an activity of placing deposits in rubles and foreign currency, reflecting the normalization of the economic situation. If you predict the situation further, I think the ratio would be in favor of ruble deposits: returns on them are usually higher than on deposits in U.S. dollars and euro, the dollar against the ruble relatively stable, and the entry of banks into the deposit insurance will contribute to ruble savings of citizens ".
" Long "deposits are popular
According to the Central Bank on 1 August 2004, the most popular among investors are deposits for a period of 1 year to 3 years. The growth of ruble deposits in this category, from 1 July to 1 August at 2.02%, currency - 3.02%. The amount of funds available to practically all ruble deposits at a time, during the same period decreased.
< BR> The exception only of deposits in rubles for a term exceeding 3 years (an increase for the month amounted to 17.06%). However, the amount of funds placed in such deposits, too young, and banks offering such long-term deposits, too little.
Regarding deposits in foreign currencies, the volume for July increased much more. In addition to those already mentioned deposits for a period of one year to three years has increased the volume of deposits, placed on a "on demand" (an increase of 5,22%), and for a period of 31-90 days (an increase of the total deposits for the month of July amounted to 9,46%), as well as over 3 years (an increase of 13,55%).
Before the new year, rates will not change
From January to July, rates on bank deposits declined not only in rubles, but in the currency. According to the CBR, the weighted average rates to attract deposits and deposits in rubles (excluding demand deposits) fell by 1.6 % per annum in the U.S. - at 0.5% per annum. According to experts, this process may continue, but not this year.
Director of the Department of Marketing Nomos-Bank Vladislavlev Denis told NEWSPAPERS: «The rates on deposits before the end of the year will not change. The people have overcome fear and returned their savings in banks. Immediately after the crisis, banks are, on average, slightly raised the stakes and now think how to find a reason to downgrade. However, the need to create a festive offers for New Year will not reduce the rate of possible this year. Apparently, the total reduction to be expected in the next year ».
" Insured "Banks will not give propiaritsya
As at 20 October 2004, the Central Bank has adopted a system of insurance Bank deposits 103. Overall, applications for entry into the system 1137 of 1263 filed a bank, registered on 1 October. According to experts, a large inflow of deposits in those banks that have adopted the system, expected in the near future is not worth it. Deputy Director Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) Andrei Melnikov felt that «in those banks that have entered into the system of insurance, can be observed an increase in the inflow of deposits only by the end of the year».
Moreover, banks will not be able to use inclusion in the deposit insurance as a pretext for unfair competition. As the President of the Association of Russian Banks (ARB) Garegin Tosunyan, «ARB intends to adopt strict measures to those banks that make advertising to join the insurance system. If someone will use the entry in insurance system as a publicity occasion, we find corporate funds to enable them to understand that so do not be. "
Themselves the representatives of banks believe that the entry of banks into the deposit insurance may lead to changes in the market of bank deposits. Senior Vice President of Vneshtorgbank Maciej Lebkovski suggested that the current system of insurance, of course, can cause "mattress money people in the banking sector and thereby enhance its role in the economy. At the same time participate in the system, as noted Lebkovski, increase the costs of banks, which could lead to some reduction in rates on deposits.
Vice-president of Bank «Moscow Capital» Alexei Koekin, by contrast, believes that the rates on deposits may rise: «As we enter into the deposit insurance, banks will seek to attract new depositors, and, of course, increased rates - one of the methods of competition. Most likely, increased rates affect primarily «short» deposits ».
Alexei Kravets believes that the banks in the insurance system does not affect fundamentally to change the conditions on deposits and interest rates. «In essence, nothing has changed: now, only a guarantee from the State for deposits of up to 100 thousand rubles. Interest rate on deposits to a greater extent depend on the macroeconomic situation in the country », - he explained Newspapers.
Banks also want assurances
followed by investors, banks began to request protection from the authorities. According to the banking community and the ARB, the State Duma should adopt a bill that would amend the Civil Code (CC) for a new type of deposit, which will not withdraw money at any time.
The amendment of irrevocable contributions to be back in first half of this year, but so far the issue is under discussion as the initiative is not a delight from private investors. Alexei Kravets believes, in the case to this amendment to the Civil Code should expect changes in interest rates and conditions on deposits: «In the case of irrevocable deposit interest rates would be significantly higher than for other types of deposits».
Accounts can be frozen
discussion in the State Duma is yet another bill (in the fight against terrorism), which could, if adopted, lead to mass exodus of depositors of banks. Under the bill, the investor wishing to withdraw from your account more than 600 thousand rubles, will not be able to get their money immediately. The bank will freeze its contributions for two days and to inform the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring. During this period, experts will check whether the investor is not involved in the financing of terrorism, and then make a decision whether to allow the Bank to «release» expense. If the check is delayed, the bill provides for blocking the account for five days.
Truth, according to deputy chairman of the Duma Banking Committee, Paul Medvedev, the committee almost unanimously "recommended that the Duma rejected the draft on first reading, but the point has not yet been set. Garegin Tosunyan warned: «Any inappropriate question leads to the instant flow of funds into a suitcase turnover, and a fight against crime must be waged at the expense of the market civilization and its financial turnover, while the bill would cause the opposite effect».
Pople
Specialists believe that in the next year or two deposits remain the most popular means of placement of funds of citizens. Valery Kardashov told NEWSPAPERS: «There are several reasons: first, most difficult for investors to understand the nuances of a particular financial instrument. Secondly, those citizens that, in principle, willing to try to invest in alternative sources of savings, discourages potential market risk losing part of their savings or projected revenue shortfall. Another reason, in my opinion, is the lack of information in an accessible form for most investors. Since bank deposits are clear and performance is guaranteed.
Besides, the real work of deposit insurance will further strengthen confidence in the bank deposit ".
At the same time, experts do not exclude that in the near future the market may see a totally new type of deposit with "floating" rate, combining the best properties of both classical service deposits and financial instruments. This deposit product is expected to be demanded by investors focused on the active management of its funds.
Source: GZT.ru
